Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5253 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 5253 BHM 05:30 → CLT 08:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 5584 BHM 18:45 → CLT 21:16 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5253 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 05:30	CLT 08:01	8%	3%	1.6%	93%
OH 5048 PSA	BHM 06:57	CLT 09:30	12%	4%	1.9%	no record
OH 5068 PSA	BHM 10:30	CLT 13:03	15%	6%	1.2%	no record
OO 6270 SkyWest	BHM 12:36	CLT 15:03	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
OH 5448 PSA	BHM 15:47	CLT 18:21	22%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 5584 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 18:45	CLT 21:16	27%	7%	1.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON