Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4186 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4186 BHM 05:15 → DFW 07:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest MQ 3359 BHM 19:32 → DFW 21:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4186 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 05:15	DFW 07:17	8%	3%	1.1%	94%
MQ 3361 Envoy	BHM 09:23	DFW 11:25	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3410 Envoy	BHM 07:24	DFW 09:26	13%	4%	1.0%	no record
OH 5530 PSA	BHM 12:11	DFW 14:23	17%	9%	1.4%	no record
MQ 4210 Envoy	BHM 15:08	DFW 17:11	27%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 5316 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 16:34	DFW 18:47	28%	11%	1.6%	48%
MQ 3359 Envoy	BHM 19:32	DFW 21:35	32%	7%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON