Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2289 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2289 Southwest	BHM 09:15	HOU 11:13	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2405 Southwest	BHM 20:00	HOU 21:59	25%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 26m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	5h 55m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 52m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 51m	93%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON