Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3423 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 45%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3423 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 06:05	MIA 09:07	14%	5%	0.9%	91%
AA 3909 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 15:48	MIA 19:02	45%	13%	1.2%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 38m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 52m	99%	71%
American Details →	BHM 05:15 → DFW 07:17AA 4186 · flown by Envoy	1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 40m	94%	66%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 39m	97%	66%
American Details →	BHM 05:30 → CLT 08:01AA 5253 · flown by PSA	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 41m	96%	64%
Delta Details →	BHM 18:46 → ATL 21:00DL 1132	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 09m	90%	63%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 25m	100%	60%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:00 → LGA 09:29DL 4977 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 24m	95%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON