Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5011 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–49%.

Safest bet that day OO 5011 BHM 06:30 → ORD 08:46 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5727 BHM 14:08 → ORD 16:34 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5011 SkyWest	BHM 06:30	ORD 08:46	14%	7%	1.1%	no record
OO 4651 SkyWest	BHM 07:07	ORD 09:23	18%	8%	1.1%	no record
OO 6258 SkyWest	BHM 13:32	ORD 15:48	40%	21%	4.1%	no record
OO 5727 SkyWest	BHM 14:08	ORD 16:34	49%	22%	4.3%	no record
UA 4449 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 07:18	ORD 09:41	13%	4%	1.9%	87%
UA 4168 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 13:22	ORD 15:45	35%	9%	2.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON