Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5218 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5218 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 06:00	PHL 09:20	9%	4%	1.0%	91%
OH 5547 PSA	BHM 13:05	PHL 16:29	23%	7%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 38m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 09m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 34m	99%	77%
American Details →	BHM 05:30 → CLT 08:01AA 5253 · flown by PSA	2h 59m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498	6h 13m	96%	77%
American Details →	BHM 05:15 → DFW 07:17AA 4186 · flown by Envoy	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:28 → PHL 12:45AA 2255	6h 30m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 34m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 30m	99%	71%
United Details →	BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 29m	96%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON