tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3672 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3672 Southwest BHM 06:05 TPA 08:43 4% 2% 0.9% no record
WN 3085 Southwest BHM 17:25 TPA 20:02 30% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 08:29 → TPA 09:59DL 1227 3h 40m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 14m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:38 → TPA 15:11DL 8862 4h 41m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 5h 45m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20AA 5218 · flown by PSA 1h 13m Philadelphia PHL 10:33 → TPA 13:23AA 2015 6h 23m 91% 75%
AmericanDetails → BHM 05:30 → CLT 08:01AA 5253 · flown by PSA 1h 21m Charlotte CLT 09:22 → TPA 11:16AA 2710 4h 46m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:36DL 1720 3h 54m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet 1h 38m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 6h 54m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BHM 11:10 → LGA 14:45DL 4936 · flown by Endeavor 54m New York LGA 15:39 → TPA 18:54DL 2404 6h 44m 71% 49%
UnitedDetails → BHM 13:22 → ORD 15:45UA 4168 · flown by GoJet 55m Chicago ORD 16:40 → TPA 20:26UA 1393 6h 04m 62% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON