Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5829 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 5829 BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 478 BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5829 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 05:00	DEN 06:53	5%	3%	0.9%	95%
UA 372 United Flight history →	BIL 07:04	DEN 09:02	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 5463 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 10:40	DEN 12:33	18%	7%	2.7%	99%worse than usual
OO 4643 SkyWest	BIL 18:06	DEN 20:06	29%	11%	1.8%	no record
UA 4637 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 15:56	DEN 17:35	29%	11%	1.4%	84%worse than usual
UA 478 United Flight history →	BIL 14:25	DEN 16:15	33%	11%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON