Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3746 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3746 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 06:00	DFW 09:55	9%	3%	1.2%	91%
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 13:20	DFW 17:09	21%	5%	1.1%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:55 → DFW 11:37DL 2798	5h 17m	96%	85%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Denver	DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350	6h 31m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 08:44 → DFW 14:35AS 321	7h 35m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	BIL 13:45 → SEA 14:55AS 2055 · flown by Horizon	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 17:58 → DFW 23:48AS 542	9h 03m	98%	69%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Denver	DEN 15:42 → DFW 18:46UA 2230	7h 06m	100%	63%
United Details →	BIL 15:56 → DEN 17:35UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	7h 03m	100%	63%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 38m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 34m	95%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BIL 12:35 → ORD 16:35AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	56m Chicago	ORD 17:31 → DFW 20:05AA 2499	6h 30m	61%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON