Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2254 at 06:24, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2254 Delta Flight history →	BIL 06:24	MSP 09:27	4%	3%	1.1%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	5h 09m	96%	85%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 40m	97%	84%
Alaska Details →	BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	6h 57m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	BIL 18:34 → SLC 20:09DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847	7h 15m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	BIL 13:45 → SEA 14:55AS 2055 · flown by Horizon	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:55AS 527	9h 10m	100%	73%
American Details →	BIL 06:00 → DFW 09:55AA 3746 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:06 → MSP 14:42AA 1668	7h 42m	97%	69%
United Details →	BIL 15:56 → DEN 17:35UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest	3h 19m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	7h 03m	100%	68%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 06m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON