tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3498 at 12:35, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BIL 12:35 ORD 16:35 39% 13% 4.2% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Denver DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:43UA 2430 5h 43m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247 5h 40m 96% 79%
AlaskaDetails → BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon 1h 22m Seattle SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265 7h 46m 96% 69%
AlaskaDetails → BIL 19:22 → SEA 20:35AS 2084 · flown by Horizon 3h 06m Seattle SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285 9h 19m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → BIL 07:04 → DEN 09:02UA 372 2h 13m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 51m 98% 67%
AlaskaDetails → BIL 13:45 → SEA 14:55AS 2055 · flown by Horizon 2h 53m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 9h 14m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → BIL 06:00 → DFW 09:55AA 3746 · flown by Envoy 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:25 → ORD 13:52AA 1285 6h 52m 96% 62%
UnitedDetails → BIL 15:56 → DEN 17:35UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Denver DEN 20:36 → ORD 00:03 +1UA 377 7h 07m 100% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest 52m Denver DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 5h 25m 54% 31%
UnitedDetails → BIL 15:56 → DEN 17:35UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest 56m Denver DEN 18:31 → ORD 21:51UA 1352 4h 55m 55% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON