tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 546 at 17:00, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 546 Southwest BNA 17:00 ABQ 19:04 28% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:00 → AUS 07:23WN 606 1h 57m Austin AUS 09:20 → ABQ 10:18WN 777 6h 18m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → ABQ 10:03DL 1004 5h 53m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → ABQ 13:11AA 3319 8h 40m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809 1h 06m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → ABQ 13:08AA 2127 7h 40m 91% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355 3h 37m Los Angeles LAX 20:47 → ABQ 23:48DL 4098 · flown by SkyWest 9h 49m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 17m Denver DEN 11:12 → ABQ 12:38UA 476 6h 38m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 6h 43m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:00 → ABQ 13:53AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 7h 49m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 1h 02m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 5h 47m 71% 62%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 60% 46%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 1h 35m Chicago ORD 20:35 → ABQ 22:41UA 2144 6h 42m 69% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON