Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2637 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2637 BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4629 BNA 18:20 → ATL 20:36 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2637 Delta Flight history →	BNA 05:10	ATL 07:21	4%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 3001 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:18	ATL 08:30	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	BNA 09:48	ATL 12:00	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 223 Southwest	BNA 09:55	ATL 12:12	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2802 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:32	ATL 09:45	10%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:55	ATL 13:05	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	BNA 12:38	ATL 14:50	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:51	ATL 17:04	18%	3%	0.8%	78%
DL 2129 Delta	BNA 15:44	ATL 17:58	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:31	ATL 18:49	22%	4%	1.0%	69%
DL 758 Delta	BNA 19:02	ATL 21:17	25%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 4629 Southwest	BNA 18:20	ATL 20:36	32%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON