Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 606 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 606 BNA 05:00 → AUS 07:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time Riskiest WN 165 BNA 18:50 → AUS 21:14 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 606 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:00	AUS 07:23	3%	1%	0.6%	48%
WN 477 Southwest	BNA 07:45	AUS 10:07	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4146 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 07:05	AUS 09:31	11%	6%	0.6%	87%
WN 478 Southwest	BNA 11:40	AUS 14:03	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 18:48	AUS 21:19	21%	7%	0.7%	75%
WN 479 Southwest	BNA 14:33	AUS 16:55	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2353 Southwest	BNA 22:30	AUS 00:53	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 480 Southwest	BNA 18:05	AUS 20:25	31%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 165 Southwest	BNA 18:50	AUS 21:14	33%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON