tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4819 Southwest BNA 12:55 BHM 14:01 20% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 4923 Southwest BNA 22:55 BHM 00:01 28% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25DL 3100 3h 15m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164 3h 39m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 3h 38m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012 3h 36m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 11:19 → IAH 13:32UA 241 2h 48m Houston IAH 16:20 → BHM 18:18UA 4256 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 59m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 1h 17m Charlotte CLT 09:17 → BHM 09:44AA 5043 · flown by PSA 4h 13m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 3h 05m Detroit DTW 15:51 → BHM 16:55DL 4647 · flown by Endeavor 6h 49m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:34 → CLT 19:05AA 3291 1h 56m Charlotte CLT 21:01 → BHM 21:32AA 5205 · flown by PSA 4h 58m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:41 → PHL 19:07AA 868 59m Philadelphia PHL 20:06 → BHM 21:36AA 5357 · flown by PSA 5h 55m 72% 50%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:41 → ORD 20:37UA 1127 53m Chicago ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:34UA 4447 · flown by GoJet 4h 53m 51% 38%
AmericanDetails → BNA 18:45 → MIA 22:09AA 323 47m Miami MIA 22:56 → BHM 23:59AA 3427 · flown by Envoy 5h 14m 45% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON