Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3940 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3940 BNA 06:25 → BOS 09:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2877 BNA 15:35 → BOS 19:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3940 Southwest	BNA 06:25	BOS 09:56	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2509 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:30	BOS 11:11	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
B6 1806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 09:09	BOS 12:53	15%	5%	0.8%	67%
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BNA 11:22	BOS 14:51	16%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 3828 Southwest	BNA 11:02	BOS 14:29	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:35	BOS 21:19	26%	7%	0.7%	64%
WN 192 Southwest	BNA 20:35	BOS 00:06	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2566 Southwest	BNA 13:20	BOS 16:51	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
B6 406 JetBlue	BNA 16:16	BOS 20:00	30%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 2877 Southwest	BNA 15:35	BOS 19:05	31%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON