tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 420 Southwest BNA 12:00 BUF 14:55 18% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 486 Southwest BNA 21:14 BUF 00:08 22% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 01m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 53m Dulles IAD 13:10 → BUF 14:33UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 03m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:19 → JFK 10:43DL 4916 · flown by Endeavor 2h 42m New York JFK 13:25 → BUF 14:44DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 6h 25m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 7h 21m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:04 → LGA 12:24DL 5638 · flown by Republic 3h 51m New York LGA 16:15 → BUF 17:44DL 5792 · flown by Republic 7h 40m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → BNA 13:55 → LGA 17:32AA 4411 · flown by Republic 1h 57m New York LGA 19:29 → BUF 21:07AA 4521 · flown by Republic 6h 12m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → BNA 17:40 → DTW 20:24DL 2316 2h 26m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 5h 18m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 48m Charlotte CLT 08:48 → BUF 10:37AA 1203 4h 06m 88% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766 1h 01m Denver DEN 17:30 → BUF 22:35UA 731 7h 06m 67% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON