Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 07:04, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 224 Southwest	BNA 19:10	BUR 21:44	36%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	2h 20m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 48m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 45m	99%	74%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:16 → BUR 11:34AA 1208	7h 33m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 13:20 → BUR 15:56AS 529	10h 54m	100%	64%
United Details →	BNA 08:02 → SFO 11:00UA 626	2h 50m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	9h 15m	98%	61%
United Details →	BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766	2h 44m Denver	DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411	8h 14m	93%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON