Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3229 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3229 BNA 06:50 → BWI 09:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 981 BNA 19:13 → BWI 22:07 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3229 Southwest	BNA 06:50	BWI 09:47	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2884 Southwest	BNA 08:55	BWI 11:52	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 446 Southwest	BNA 12:40	BWI 15:37	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 495 Southwest	BNA 14:50	BWI 17:47	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 499 Southwest	BNA 20:43	BWI 23:40	24%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 981 Southwest	BNA 19:13	BWI 22:07	25%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON