Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1065 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1065 BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 506 BNA 16:50 → CLT 19:13 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1065 American Flight history →	BNA 05:31	CLT 08:00	6%	3%	1.2%	92%
AA 2940 American	BNA 07:21	CLT 09:46	12%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 3328 American Flight history →	BNA 10:18	CLT 12:43	14%	5%	0.9%	78%
WN 4967 Southwest	BNA 10:15	CLT 12:37	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1108 American	BNA 12:38	CLT 15:03	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1136 American	BNA 15:07	CLT 17:38	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 2014 Southwest	BNA 21:00	CLT 23:23	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 519 American Flight history →	BNA 18:11	CLT 20:39	26%	7%	0.9%	59%
AA 3291 American Flight history →	BNA 16:34	CLT 19:05	29%	6%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
AA 2402 American	BNA 19:16	CLT 21:43	32%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 506 Southwest	BNA 16:50	CLT 19:13	36%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON