tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1303 at 12:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1303 Southwest BNA 12:30 CVG 14:46 14% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2567 Southwest BNA 20:40 CVG 22:57 27% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → CVG 11:28DL 3160 5h 18m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → CVG 12:22DL 3149 5h 04m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 6h 11m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 3h 18m Chicago ORD 12:59 → CVG 15:30UA 4388 · flown by GoJet 6h 50m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 36m Minneapolis MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703 7h 34m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169 4h 23m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 3h 34m Detroit DTW 12:20 → CVG 13:35DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor 6h 30m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:55 → ATL 13:05DL 1155 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 4h 46m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:00 → JFK 13:30DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 14:20 → CVG 16:51DL 5012 · flown by Endeavor 5h 51m 69% 50%
DeltaDetails → BNA 13:53 → JFK 17:39DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 18:29 → CVG 21:05DL 5023 · flown by Endeavor 6h 12m 64% 42%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:41 → ORD 20:37UA 1127 52m Chicago ORD 21:29 → CVG 23:46UA 1223 4h 05m 51% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON