Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5835 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day YX 5835 BNA 05:58 → DCA 08:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1389 BNA 19:05 → DCA 21:54 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5835 Republic	BNA 05:58	DCA 08:55	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 3866 Southwest	BNA 06:10	DCA 09:00	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2011 Southwest	BNA 10:10	DCA 12:59	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 5857 Republic	BNA 11:44	DCA 14:40	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 10:07	DCA 13:01	17%	7%	1.9%	60%
AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 15:05	DCA 18:01	17%	5%	1.3%	73%
WN 2439 Southwest	BNA 12:35	DCA 15:24	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 5861 Republic	BNA 17:03	DCA 19:59	22%	6%	3.0%	no record
WN 3821 Southwest	BNA 15:10	DCA 17:59	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3765 Envoy	BNA 16:45	DCA 19:53	25%	7%	3.6%	no record
AA 1163 American Flight history →	BNA 19:38	DCA 22:29	33%	8%	2.3%	66%
WN 1389 Southwest	BNA 19:05	DCA 21:54	35%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON