Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 541 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 541 BNA 05:48 → DEN 07:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1535 BNA 16:41 → DEN 18:32 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 541 Southwest	BNA 05:48	DEN 07:39	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1327 Southwest	BNA 07:55	DEN 09:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1716 United Flight history →	BNA 07:00	DEN 08:55	8%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 502 United Flight history →	BNA 10:26	DEN 12:23	12%	4%	0.8%	92%
WN 3292 Southwest	BNA 12:50	DEN 14:42	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 393 United	BNA 19:54	DEN 22:06	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1766 United Flight history →	BNA 14:29	DEN 16:29	33%	9%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
UA 2201 United Flight history →	BNA 17:24	DEN 19:15	35%	9%	0.9%	66%
WN 3490 Southwest	BNA 19:01	DEN 20:53	36%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 1401 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:01	DEN 16:59	46%	10%	1.0%	77%worse than usual
WN 1535 Southwest	BNA 16:41	DEN 18:32	50%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON