Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2787 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2787 BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3051 BNA 19:00 → DFW 21:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2787 American Flight history →	BNA 06:01	DFW 08:20	8%	4%	1.8%	87%
AA 849 American	BNA 06:11	DFW 08:35	9%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 2583 American Flight history →	BNA 07:04	DFW 09:18	10%	6%	1.8%	83%
AA 2510 American	BNA 08:53	DFW 11:01	12%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 1103 American Flight history →	BNA 10:11	DFW 12:19	12%	6%	1.3%	84%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	BNA 12:53	DFW 15:02	19%	6%	1.2%	79%
AA 1084 American	BNA 15:47	DFW 17:57	28%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 1109 American	BNA 18:12	DFW 20:21	30%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 1181 American	BNA 17:03	DFW 19:20	30%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 1199 American	BNA 19:38	DFW 21:51	33%	8%	1.5%	no record
F9 3051 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 19:00	DFW 21:10	37%	11%	2.7%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON