Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2439 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2439 BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4968 BNA 17:10 → DTW 19:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2439 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:05	DTW 08:46	6%	2%	0.8%	96%
WN 1107 Southwest	BNA 10:21	DTW 13:01	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:06	DTW 12:46	12%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:03	DTW 16:46	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:40	DTW 20:24	21%	5%	0.7%	76%
WN 4546 Southwest	BNA 20:36	DTW 23:16	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4968 Southwest	BNA 17:10	DTW 19:50	28%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON