Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 216 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 216 BNA 05:57 → EWR 09:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2677 BNA 15:49 → EWR 19:12 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 216 United	BNA 05:57	EWR 09:08	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
YX 3408 Republic	BNA 07:05	EWR 10:26	7%	3%	2.2%	no record
UA 2485 United	BNA 09:28	EWR 12:39	13%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 3773 United	BNA 19:58	EWR 23:20	27%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 2174 United Flight history →	BNA 13:15	EWR 16:37	28%	12%	1.1%	74%
UA 499 United Flight history →	BNA 19:25	EWR 22:48	32%	10%	1.0%	58%
UA 2677 United	BNA 15:49	EWR 19:12	36%	14%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON