Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1001 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1001 BNA 05:53 → FLL 09:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 529 BNA 13:56 → FLL 17:17 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1001 Southwest	BNA 05:53	FLL 09:13	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 557 Southwest	BNA 10:38	FLL 13:59	14%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 333 Southwest	BNA 15:15	FLL 18:36	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 267 Southwest	BNA 16:53	FLL 20:14	24%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 4732 Southwest	BNA 19:20	FLL 22:41	26%	9%	0.9%	no record
B6 2482 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 07:50	FLL 11:04	29%	10%	5.5%	95%worse than usual
B6 2582 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 14:27	FLL 17:41	35%	14%	2.4%	43%
G4 529 Allegiant	BNA 13:56	FLL 17:17	35%	15%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON