Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 564 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 564 BNA 05:09 → HOU 07:26 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 569 BNA 19:43 → HOU 21:57 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 564 Southwest	BNA 05:09	HOU 07:26	3%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 565 Southwest	BNA 07:55	HOU 10:13	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 1550 Southwest	BNA 12:20	HOU 14:37	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2357 Southwest	BNA 14:50	HOU 17:08	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 570 Southwest	BNA 22:38	HOU 00:55	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 569 Southwest	BNA 19:43	HOU 21:57	29%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON