tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 571 Southwest BNA 14:11 IND 16:28 18% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 4513 Southwest BNA 20:35 IND 22:49 27% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952 4h 23m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 28m Dulles IAD 12:45 → IND 14:46UA 3543 · flown by Republic 5h 16m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 18m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:04 → LGA 12:24DL 5638 · flown by Republic 2h 19m New York LGA 14:43 → IND 17:13DL 5646 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → LGA 09:32DL 4638 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m New York LGA 11:45 → IND 14:06DL 5642 · flown by Republic 7h 06m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 4h 31m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 04:55 → ORD 06:47AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 1h 41m Chicago ORD 08:28 → IND 10:42AA 3907 · flown by Envoy 4h 47m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 3h 06m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 6h 23m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 53m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 5h 45m 64% 55%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:41 → MIA 20:04AA 487 55m Miami MIA 20:59 → IND 23:50AA 2518 6h 09m 59% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON