Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 578 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 578 BNA 05:04 → LAS 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3777 BNA 15:41 → LAS 17:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 578 Southwest	BNA 05:04	LAS 07:00	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1483 Southwest	BNA 08:00	LAS 09:58	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 295 Southwest	BNA 12:05	LAS 14:04	25%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 585 Southwest	BNA 22:42	LAS 00:45	32%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1243 Southwest	BNA 18:30	LAS 20:31	37%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1946 Southwest	BNA 16:06	LAS 18:03	37%	8%	0.5%	no record
F9 3777 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:41	LAS 17:40	39%	12%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON