Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1015 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1015 BNA 06:15 → LGA 09:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 716 BNA 19:01 → LGA 22:11 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1015 Southwest	BNA 06:15	LGA 09:26	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
DL 1071 Delta	BNA 06:03	LGA 09:14	6%	2%	1.3%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 09:04	LGA 12:24	9%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 3314 American	BNA 06:18	LGA 09:46	10%	4%	1.4%	no record
YX 4622 Republic	BNA 10:29	LGA 13:49	14%	5%	2.0%	no record
YX 5617 Republic	BNA 12:37	LGA 15:56	16%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 4411 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 13:55	LGA 17:32	17%	6%	1.5%	86%
WN 3762 Southwest	BNA 11:05	LGA 14:15	20%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:38	LGA 21:16	22%	6%	2.1%	67%
WN 595 Southwest	BNA 13:29	LGA 16:54	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 1649 Delta	BNA 16:54	LGA 20:04	29%	8%	1.8%	no record
WN 4592 Southwest	BNA 17:00	LGA 20:25	31%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 716 Southwest	BNA 19:01	LGA 22:11	36%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 4638 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 06:00	LGA 09:32	25%	10%	0.0%	75%
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 12:40	LGA 16:17	27%	12%	5.5%	73%
DL 5022 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	LGA 23:31	34%	16%	20.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON