Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4759 Southwest	BNA 19:20	LGB 21:41	30%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 24m	84%	71%
Alaska Details →	BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:23 → LGB 14:04AS 717	9h 02m	89%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON