tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1725 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1725 Southwest BNA 07:50 LIT 09:13 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 603 Southwest BNA 22:51 LIT 00:15 23% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 49m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → LIT 08:42DL 3033 3h 32m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040 4h 45m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027 5h 24m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → LIT 12:45AA 4146 · flown by Envoy 7h 14m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:36 → LIT 12:59AA 3898 · flown by Envoy 5h 55m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:11 → DFW 12:19AA 1103 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:52 → LIT 17:19AA 4309 · flown by Envoy 7h 08m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 17:52 → LIT 18:30DL 2061 5h 52m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:34DL 2701 6h 43m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 12:53 → DFW 15:02AA 1396 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:52 → LIT 17:19AA 4309 · flown by Envoy 4h 26m 73% 58%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 48m Atlanta ATL 17:52 → LIT 18:30DL 2061 3h 39m 73% 55%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:34 → CLT 19:05AA 3291 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38AA 3692 · flown by Envoy 5h 04m 71% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON