Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3680 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3680 BNA 07:25 → MCI 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 614 BNA 22:30 → MCI 00:20 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3680 Southwest	BNA 07:25	MCI 09:15	4%	2%	2.0%	no record
WN 187 Southwest	BNA 12:45	MCI 14:35	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2569 Southwest	BNA 16:40	MCI 18:30	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 614 Southwest	BNA 22:30	MCI 00:20	20%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON