Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 615 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 615 BNA 05:00 → MCO 08:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3560 BNA 17:05 → MCO 20:19 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 615 Southwest	BNA 05:00	MCO 08:00	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 621 Southwest	BNA 06:40	MCO 09:40	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 159 Southwest	BNA 09:10	MCO 12:11	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 634 Southwest	BNA 10:40	MCO 13:41	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
F9 1286 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 11:12	MCO 14:25	23%	11%	1.1%	91%worse than usual
WN 4585 Southwest	BNA 13:45	MCO 16:45	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 1723 Southwest	BNA 20:31	MCO 23:31	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 639 Southwest	BNA 18:08	MCO 21:08	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 2817 Southwest	BNA 17:15	MCO 20:15	30%	10%	1.6%	no record
F9 3560 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 17:05	MCO 20:19	35%	17%	1.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON