tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1094 at 12:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1094 Southwest BNA 12:45 MEM 13:54 16% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 650 Southwest BNA 22:30 MEM 23:39 32% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 14m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071 4h 17m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 1h 00m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 5h 28m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 09:14 → MEM 10:08AA 1790 4h 37m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:07 → DCA 13:01AA 5085 · flown by PSA 2h 51m Washington DCA 15:52 → MEM 17:25AA 4497 · flown by Republic 7h 18m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733 4h 26m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → BNA 11:19 → IAH 13:32UA 241 2h 52m Houston IAH 16:24 → MEM 18:12UA 6158 · flown by Mesa 6h 53m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 48m Atlanta ATL 17:52 → MEM 18:15DL 2939 3h 24m 73% 50%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339 46m Houston IAH 18:05 → MEM 19:54UA 6167 · flown by Mesa 4h 46m 60% 49%
UnitedDetails → BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766 1h 01m Denver DEN 17:30 → MEM 20:56UA 2130 6h 27m 68% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON