Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1342 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1342 BNA 05:39 → MIA 09:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 487 BNA 16:41 → MIA 20:04 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1342 American Flight history →	BNA 05:39	MIA 09:04	8%	3%	1.0%	92%
WN 4935 Southwest	BNA 09:50	MIA 13:12	19%	5%	3.9%	no record
MQ 4123 Envoy	BNA 10:07	MIA 13:31	26%	8%	6.5%	no record
WN 4779 Southwest	BNA 19:45	MIA 23:06	31%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 323 American Flight history →	BNA 18:45	MIA 22:09	38%	11%	1.6%	59%
AA 487 American Flight history →	BNA 16:41	MIA 20:04	38%	10%	1.6%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON