Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2221 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2221 BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4934 BNA 22:41 → MSP 00:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2221 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:00	MSP 08:10	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 4822 Southwest	BNA 08:05	MSP 10:16	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:03	MSP 12:14	9%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	BNA 18:45	MSP 20:58	20%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:00	MSP 18:14	20%	6%	0.7%	71%
WN 4934 Southwest	BNA 22:41	MSP 00:54	24%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON