Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 659 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 659 BNA 07:55 → MSY 09:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 660 BNA 18:36 → MSY 20:20 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 659 Southwest	BNA 07:55	MSY 09:37	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1076 Southwest	BNA 11:20	MSY 13:02	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 256 Southwest	BNA 12:55	MSY 14:38	17%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 2467 Southwest	BNA 22:30	MSY 00:12	24%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 662 Southwest	BNA 19:21	MSY 21:04	26%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 660 Southwest	BNA 18:36	MSY 20:20	27%	8%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON