tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2855 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2855 Southwest BNA 10:05 MYR 12:44 9% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 4878 Southwest BNA 20:10 MYR 22:48 23% 10% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 6h 05m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 5h 42m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 4h 37m 99% 83%
AllegiantDetails → BNA 12:28 → SYR 15:39G4 360 2h 42m Syracuse SYR 18:21 → MYR 20:29G4 356 7h 01m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809 1h 14m Philadelphia PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 5h 34m 91% 75%
AmericanDetails → BNA 11:27 → PHL 14:42AA 2605 1h 37m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 6h 00m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 2h 12m Chicago ORD 11:53 → MYR 15:03UA 623 6h 23m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 6h 24m 99% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON