tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1516 at 14:50, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1516 Southwest BNA 14:50 OMA 16:49 15% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:46DL 1125 6h 28m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 29m Minneapolis MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 3h 29m Detroit DTW 12:15 → OMA 13:22DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 04:55 → ORD 06:47AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Chicago ORD 07:57 → OMA 09:42AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 4h 47m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 3h 14m Detroit DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest 7h 04m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 2h 59m Detroit DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 1h 18m Denver DEN 10:13 → OMA 12:58UA 1633 5h 58m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:55 → ATL 13:05DL 1155 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 6h 53m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 57m Houston IAH 11:59 → OMA 14:25UA 1936 5h 45m 67% 54%
UnitedDetails → BNA 12:49 → ORD 14:50UA 1616 57m Chicago ORD 15:47 → OMA 17:28UA 2207 4h 39m 62% 36%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:41 → ORD 20:37UA 1127 1h 03m Chicago ORD 21:40 → OMA 23:18UA 2336 4h 37m 58% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON