tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:18, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1240 Southwest BNA 09:05 ONT 11:24 9% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 28m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 6h 41m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 8h 28m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → ONT 11:52AA 2956 7h 51m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339 3h 12m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 8h 47m 97% 66%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:55 → ATL 13:05DL 1155 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 35m 99% 64%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779 8h 59m 96% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 1h 18m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 7h 52m 61% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON