tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 185 at 11:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 185 Southwest BNA 11:10 ORF 14:08 12% 4% 0.8% no record
WN 440 Southwest BNA 19:58 ORF 22:52 26% 7% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 5h 18m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 15m Detroit DTW 10:01 → ORF 11:57DL 3066 4h 52m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:14DL 2925 6h 56m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:13 → ORF 00:02 +1DL 5518 · flown by Endeavor 7h 02m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → ORF 12:52AA 1323 6h 21m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:53 → ORF 15:34DL 1101 4h 46m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:39 → JFK 12:15AA 4712 · flown by Republic 3h 15m New York JFK 15:30 → ORF 17:04AA 4359 · flown by Republic 7h 25m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 2h 24m Chicago ORD 12:05 → ORF 15:19UA 2807 6h 39m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:41 → MIA 20:04AA 487 1h 10m Miami MIA 21:14 → ORF 23:37AA 775 5h 56m 66% 46%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:34 → CLT 19:05AA 3291 1h 19m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45AA 5622 · flown by PSA 4h 11m 69% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON