tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 522 Alaska BNA 17:02 PDX 19:50 25% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 49m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661 8h 40m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:25DL 539 7h 15m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 8h 40m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 32m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 8h 09m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 9h 18m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:00 → SEA 09:59DL 372 3h 38m Seattle SEA 13:37 → PDX 14:48DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 9h 48m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 35m 91% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:41 → PHL 19:07AA 868 1h 00m Philadelphia PHL 20:07 → PDX 23:36AA 2245 9h 55m 73% 52%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 6h 17m 60% 44%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 1h 09m Chicago ORD 20:09 → PDX 22:41UA 2243 7h 42m 52% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON