Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2809 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2809 BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 687 BNA 15:55 → PHL 19:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2809 American Flight history →	BNA 06:28	PHL 09:39	10%	3%	0.9%	90%
OH 5358 PSA	BNA 08:52	PHL 12:08	13%	6%	1.5%	no record
WN 4879 Southwest	BNA 10:05	PHL 13:17	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2605 American Flight history →	BNA 11:27	PHL 14:42	16%	7%	1.0%	75%
AA 3249 American	BNA 13:44	PHL 17:03	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 5580 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 20:01	PHL 23:10	25%	9%	2.9%	65%
AA 868 American Flight history →	BNA 15:41	PHL 19:07	27%	10%	0.9%	62%
WN 676 Southwest	BNA 21:15	PHL 00:27	28%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 687 Southwest	BNA 15:55	PHL 19:07	33%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON