Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 677 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 677 BNA 05:05 → PHX 06:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 680 BNA 20:15 → PHX 22:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 677 Southwest	BNA 05:05	PHX 06:56	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 678 Southwest	BNA 07:55	PHX 09:46	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3086 American Flight history →	BNA 14:31	PHX 16:27	21%	6%	0.8%	81%
WN 586 Southwest	BNA 13:40	PHX 15:22	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 683 Southwest	BNA 22:35	PHX 00:26	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4282 Southwest	BNA 16:01	PHX 17:43	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 680 Southwest	BNA 20:15	PHX 22:06	31%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON