Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4514 BNA 10:06 → PIT 12:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 2735 BNA 13:17 → PIT 15:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4514 Southwest	BNA 10:06	PIT 12:46	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4473 Southwest	BNA 21:25	PIT 00:05	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2500 Southwest	BNA 14:36	PIT 17:16	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
G4 2735 Allegiant	BNA 13:17	PIT 15:56	18%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON