tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 279 Southwest BNA 11:17 PVD 14:43 11% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 779 Southwest BNA 21:05 PVD 00:31 20% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147 6h 19m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 37m Detroit DTW 10:23 → PVD 12:19DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 5h 14m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 18m Dulles IAD 12:35 → PVD 14:05UA 6262 · flown by Mesa 4h 35m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PVD 13:07AA 1877 6h 36m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 5h 41m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 6h 26m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 6h 31m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:18 → CLT 12:43AA 3328 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 16:20 → PVD 18:30AA 2338 7h 12m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:05 → DCA 18:01AA 4374 · flown by Republic 47m Washington DCA 18:48 → PVD 20:32AA 5438 · flown by PSA 4h 27m 73% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON