Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3770 at 11:00, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3770 Southwest	BNA 11:00	PWM 14:34	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	4h 50m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:21 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	5h 42m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	4h 55m	93%	79%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	1h 17m Denver	DEN 10:12 → PWM 16:18UA 372	8h 18m	96%	77%
American Details →	BNA 11:27 → PHL 14:42AA 2605	2h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 16:54 → PWM 18:34AA 6125 · flown by Piedmont	6h 07m	97%	74%
American Details →	BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065	47m Charlotte	CLT 08:47 → PWM 11:10AA 1744	4h 39m	88%	74%
American Details →	BNA 10:07 → DCA 13:01AA 5085 · flown by PSA	1h 50m Washington	DCA 14:51 → PWM 16:44AA 1423	5h 37m	91%	72%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 10:59 → PWM 14:30UA 2804	5h 50m	94%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 16:34 → CLT 19:05AA 3291	1h 14m Charlotte	CLT 20:19 → PWM 22:36AA 2120	5h 02m	71%	43%
Delta Details →	BNA 18:27 → JFK 22:09DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor	5h 25m	62%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON