tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 2744 Allegiant BNA 08:23 RIC 11:11 13% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 3336 Southwest BNA 13:45 RIC 16:31 17% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 4h 38m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 43m Dulles IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet 4h 31m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809 3h 33m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 7h 07m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → RIC 14:12DL 3152 5h 40m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 1h 39m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:06DL 3073 5h 00m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → RIC 10:36AA 5119 · flown by PSA 4h 05m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:45 → IAH 11:00UA 4746 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 6h 26m 87% 77%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → RIC 17:26DL 1214 6h 38m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 1h 01m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 6h 31m 70% 62%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:00 → JFK 13:30DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 14:20 → RIC 16:19DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor 5h 19m 69% 50%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:41 → MIA 20:04AA 487 1h 05m Miami MIA 21:09 → RIC 23:37AA 983 5h 56m 65% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON